DULUTH, Minn. – Michele Tafoya, who broke with GOP tradition in vowing to continue her quest for retiring Sen. Tina Smith’s seat, may be an exception to an unofficial rule: a candidate who fails to get the Republican Party’s endorsement nearly always loses the nomination.

After six rounds of balloting that eliminated other candidates, including former NBA player Royce White, the endorsement went to former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze, who received the support of nearly 63% of the GOP delegates.

In speeches on the convention floor Friday in Duluth, Schwarze urged delegates to reject Tafoya’s pitch that she was the most “electable” candidate and said Republicans could win the Senate race “without compromising our values.” 

In a victory speech, Schwarze thanked delegates and said, “I will not compromise.”

“I will fight in D.C. and we will fight to take back our state together,” he said. 

Despite her loss at the convention, Tafoya, who had already said she would buck the state party by not abiding by the convention’s choice, said her campaign will continue moving full speed toward the August primary election.

But that carries some risk. 

A non-endorsed GOP candidate has not won a Republican primary since 1994, when Arne Carlson, who was considered too moderate for the delegates at that year’s Republican Party convention, went on to be his party’s nominee and win reelection to the governor’s office.

“Unlike the Democrats, the Republican track record in Minnesota of bucking the convention in recent history has not worked out well,” said Hamline University political science professor David Schultz.

Tafoya, a former sports broadcaster, does not have the advantage of being an incumbent like Carlson. But she does have the full support of the National Republican Senatorial Convention (NRSC), plenty of name recognition, the ability to raise a lot of campaign cash and is media savvy.

She touted those strengths in appeals to delegates Friday, but couldn’t earn above 37% of the votes. 

Losing the endorsement has cost Tafoya the support of the state Republican Party, but Schultz said that’s a very small loss, especially since she’s backed by the NRSC, which would pour millions of dollars in the race if Tafoya wins the Aug. 11 primary and is considered competitive in a general election.

“The Republican Party in Minnesota is still in the most part broke,” Schultz said.

In the November general election, Tafoya would likely face either Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan or U.S. Rep. Angie Craig, D-2nd District, who shares something with Tafoya – she also rebelled against the party convention process.

Tafoya was a victim of an increasingly strong trend in national politics. To win party endorsements – and to a large extent party primaries – candidates have to appeal to their party’s base voters, which are strongly conservative when it comes to the GOP and progressive for Democrats.

Chisago County delegate Tony Kaufman, who supported Schwarze, said the party activists who cast ballots at the GOP state convention are the most knowledgeable when it comes to picking a political candidate.

“When you support the endorsement process, you’re supporting an informed base, an informed constituent, and that’s why we’re excited about it, and that’s why we choose to abide by the endorsement,” Kaufman said. “Because it’s not only the Republican Party, we want the citizens of Minnesota to be able to have the same opportunity to be able to get behind a candidate.”

But party-endorsed candidates who appeal to the extremes of both parties have to win the support of independents and the more moderate voters in their parties to win the general election.

So, it was her moderation that prevented Tafoya from winning the nomination.

She previously called herself a “pro-choice Republican” (though more recently has said states should outlaw abortions after 12 weeks of pregnancy) and once wrote an “open letter” to President Donald Trump asking him not to run for reelection.

Tafoya has also said Extreme Risk Protection Orders, or “red flag” laws, which allow courts to temporarily remove weapons from individuals who are a danger to themselves or others, are the “most sensible” ways to combat mass shootings, raising the hackles of 2nd Amendment enthusiasts.

She attempted to distance herself from her past statements at the convention. 

“I will never compromise my conservative values,” she said.

Tafoya’s previous remarks gave Curtis Rethwisch, a Lincoln County delegate who supported Schwarze, pause. 

“If it was just word of mouth and campaign smears I wouldn’t give it any credibility, but I watched the videos,” he said. “The words came right out of her mouth.”

Schwarze, in contrast, checked all the boxes for him. 

“I don’t have to give up anything on my principles and my morals with him,” he said. “He’s pro life, he’s pro build a wall, he backs Trump.” 

When Kendall Qualls first ran for governor in 2022, he rejected Tafoya, who was then his campaign co-chairman, as his choice for lieutenant governor because he said Tafoya was pro-choice and not in line with GOP values. 

Yet, in a state that has not had a Republican in state-wide office for 20 years, Tafoya has already done well in polls that have put her head-to-head with both Flanagan and Craig.

John Kline, a former Minnesota Republican congressman who introduced Tafoya at Friday’s convention, called her the “only candidate here who can and will win in November.” 

An Emerson College poll conducted in February, about a month after Tafoya entered the race, showed Flanagan receiving 47% of the support of the respondents and Tafoya 41%. The same poll showed Craig beating Tafoya 47% to 40%.

“That doesn’t put her in the winning category, but at this point that’s not bad,” Schultz said.

In a general election, Schultz said Tafoya is “where she should be on the issues.”

“At that point, she has a shot at attracting independents,” he said. “She picks up a different group of Republicans. People at the conventions are the most extreme.”

He also said Tafoya’s gender would be a boost when it came to the crucial votes of suburban women and her diverse background – her father was Hispanic – may also help in a general election. 

But to face either Craig or Flanagan, Tafoya must win over the Aug. 11 primary. 

Schultz said Tafoya “has a chance to squeak through” the primary, where GOP conservatives will be overrepresented. By that time, Tafoya’s campaign is likely to start an advertising blitz, both on television and the internet.

There will also be more scrutiny of Schwarze, who has made controversial remarks about birth control.

Still, the convention results show he has the firm support of the conservative wing of the GOP and of those most supportive of Trump.

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