Timberwolves’ season expectations look more like pipe dreams


Few things are more fun to watch than an NBA team that is quickening, that has endured its newborn stumbles and adolescent gaffes and is actively molting the doltish disarray that had instilled apathy and disrespect in viewer and performer alike. A team finding its versatile rhythmic foundation so that it mixes and matches the fervor of rock, the improvisation of jazz, the placidity of the forest and the organic memory of the blues. 

Such a team played at Target Center on Sunday night. The Charlotte Hornets won their 42nd game of the year – two more than in their previous two seasons combined, with four games left on the 2025-26 schedule. They have won 31 of 45 games in this calendar year, and 17 of 24 since the All Star break with the NBA’s best offense in terms of points scored per possession, and second-best net rating, when you subtract points allowed per possession from the points scored. 

By contrast, the Hornets handed the Minnesota Timberwolves their third loss in a row, fourth in five games, and ninth in the past 15. Unlike the Hornets (or the Spurs or the Pistons, downtrodden and mocked just a year or two ago), the Timberwolves and their fans are jaded past the phase of quickening glee, perplexed and uneasy about the mode and relative irregularity of their 46 wins this season. After two straight trips to the Western Conference Finals, they are cornered into an attitude of revelry – achieved by at least getting to a playoff series with rings on the line – or bust. 

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At the beginning of the 2025-26 season, the Timberwolves proclaimed they now knew what it takes to genuinely compete for a championship. But with four games remaining in the regular season, we can see that they either did not know what it takes, did not have what it takes, or weren’t willing to do what it takes. 

Their recent, untimely slump has handy excuses. They were without their superstar Anthony Edwards for eight of the last 10 games and Ant was noticeably hobbled by his knee injury a good week before that. They have also missed their best wing defender and improved offensive force Jaden McDaniels the past five games. And one of the two or three best players in the NBA who comes off the bench, Naz Reid, has been obviously affected by a shoulder injury. 

But the Timberwolves’ injury luck didn’t run out, it just leveled down to what is typical in what has become an increasingly physical 82-game NBA marathon. The five players who started in Minnesota’s season opener have continued to do so for eight more games than any other quintet in the league and have logged 195 more minutes together than any other unit. 

Related: After weathering Ant’s absence with inspired D, Wolves now face the home stretch without McDaniels

That continuity was especially prevalent early in the season, when the Wolves also were gifted one of the most lenient schedules in the NBA. Rather than seize this opportunity to establish championship habits regardless of circumstances, by upgrading their vices and reiterating their virtues, the Timberwolves frequently played down to the level of their competition, a half-measure made blatant by how significantly they ratcheted up their focus and extended their execution against foes they haughtily deemed their legitimate peers. It got to the point where head coach Chris Finch referred to his team being “bored” during torpid performances against inferior competition. 

They are paying for that boredom now. Key members of the rotation are out or hindered, the opponents are tougher and the stakes are higher in the final week of the regular season. 

Or were higher. 

On March 5, the Wolves were the third seed in the West with a record of 40-23; well behind Oklahoma City and San Antonio but a game ahead of Denver and Houston and two games up on the Los Angeles Lakers in the dogfight to avoid the play-in and seize home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. They had won six of seven games coming out of the All-Star break, running their record to 67-37 after the break in the five seasons Finch had coached them since training camp. Indeed, one of the spangled items on Finch’s resume was molding teams that peak down the stretch of the regular season and into the playoffs. 

Today, the Wolves are almost certainly locked into the sixth seed and will start the first round against the third-seeded team. With four games left to play, they are three full games ahead of the seventh-place Phoenix Suns, thus likely to avoid the play-in. But they are also three full games behind the fourth-place Houston Rockets, making it just as probable that they won’t move up. 

As of this Monday afternoon, the first-place Thunder are 14-1 since March 5. Going down the Western Conference standings, the Spurs are 13-2, the Lakers 12-3, the Nuggets 11-4 and the Rockets 10-5. As mentioned earlier, the Wolves are 6-9. What happened?

Blame the offense, which ranks 28th among the 30 NBA teams in points scored per possession since March 5, plunging it from 9th to 14th for the season in that span. The Wolves have been lacking in nearly every metric of quality offense. 

Take three-point shooting, for example. On March 5, the team was fourth in the NBA for long-range accuracy at 37.4%. Since then they are 25th at 34.3%. That’s not the fault of the “turbo twins,” as Ayo Dosunmu has converted 45.1% of his 51 three-point attempts over the last 15 games, and Bones Hyland is at 37.4% on 99 attempts. 

But every single player who has logged at least 200 minutes over the past 15 games is way below the league average of 35.9%. In order of most attempts from behind the arc, the culprits are Donte “Ragu” DiVincenzo (31.6% on 117 three-point attempts), Naz Reid (25% on 60 attempts), Ant (33.3% on 51 attempts), Julius Randle (32% on 50 attempts), and Jaden McDaniels (32.4% on 37 attempts). 

They’re not getting rebounds. On March 5, they were 12th in offensive rebounding percentage; since then they are 20th. On March 5 they were 10th in defensive rebounding percentage; since then they are 24th. Their ball movement is less prolific and less efficient. Their assist percentage has dropped from 18th to 20th while their turnover percentage has gone from 16th fewest to 26th. Consequently their assist-to-turnover ratio is bottom five, at 26th, after being middle of the pack, 16th, up through March 5.

While less consistently degraded, Minnesota’s defensive performance over the last 15 games is also damning. Two years ago, when the Timberwolves were quickening into a genuine contender, bolstered by the best defense in the NBA almost wire-to-wire over the course of the season, they would come out and suffocate their opponents in the second half. 

Since March 5, they have let go of the rope. Over the past 15 games, they rank third in fewest points allowed per 100 possessions in the first half, at a stingy 105. In the second half, the number balloons to 117.8 points allowed per 100 possessions, which is 15th in the league. 

Related: The quick, contagious joy of Ayo Dosunmu resets Timberwolves in pivotal stretch

The team’s current three-game losing streak, a trio of disheartening second half performances that has consigned this club to the sixth seed, vividly depicts the breakage. Each has come against a good team that has exerted its will at hinge points in the third and fourth quarter, as the offense remains inept and the defense temporarily disintegrates. 

Last Thursday, the Timberwolves battled the best team in the East, the Detroit Pistons, on even terms in the Motor City for three quarters only to allow a 13-2 run that flipped an 87-83 lead with 9:25 left to play into a 89-96 deficit with six minutes to go, resulting in a 113-108 loss. 

The next night, obviously depleted by injury and facing a back-to-back on the road in Philadelphia, the Wolves had a double-digit lead two minutes into the third quarter and then fell apart, allowing runs of 17-4 and then 15-1 to close out the quarter. In the hallway after the game, Finch cut loose. 

“Yeah, we struggled to make shots, but then we got up 10, and then didn’t want to put the work in on offense at that point in time. We looked for quick things (easy ways to score) when they were making their run, and turned it over a bunch in traffic and started trying to play (to draw) the foul. They got loose in transition and we were never able to sustain anything after we got up 10.”

Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic wanted to know specifically what he wanted the offense to do and Finch quickly obliged. 

“I want to see movement. I want to see going somewhere with force. I want to see next-action basketball and pass-pass combinations. I wanted to see good screens. It just all bogged down into something super-slow and they were able to blow up everything and we were like, just looking for the short cut,” he replied. 

Sunday night at home versus Charlotte was more of the same. Finch bemoaned his team’s early turnovers and inability to prevent offensive rebounds in the first half, citing perimeter players not assisting center Rudy Gobert, especially on long caroms. But once again it was a second-half run – 15 straight points bridging the third and fourth quarter – that cinched the 122-108 defeat. 

“Do you feel like the spirit of this team is down?” Krawczynski asked Finch. 

“For sure, that’s what we just talked about,” Finch answered. “We are a million miles away from the team that we can be, and that we are. And we’ve got to get that back with our connectiveness and our spirit. And we’ve got to have some guys just play better. Guys are forcing their offense and they’re not seeing it go in. We’ve got to make all the little plays, the dirty plays to stay in it. We start gambling on defense and lose our discipline and that’s when stuff snowballs on us right now.” 

For the first time in three years, the Timberwolves don’t have momentum heading into the postseason. Yes, the injuries have made an impact, mostly in depriving the roster of a chance to fully integrate key newcomers like Ayo Dosunmu and Kyle Anderson with Ant and McDaniels, and develop a rotation that blends half-court prowess with go-go pace. 

Assuming the Wolves cross a nearly-assured threshold and finish sixth in the West, their first playoff game won’t be until April 18 or 19, on the road in Denver, Los Angeles or Houston. Now until then needs to be a time of recuperation and then reorganization and renewal. 

Let’s be clear: This is a rescue mission. The Timberwolves may still “luck out” and wind up facing a Lakers team recently ravaged by injuries to their two best players, Luka Doncic and Austin Reeves; or a Rockets team without a point guard that has real issues closing out games. They have also traditionally played Denver tough. 

None of this excuses the fact that the Wolves weren’t ready for a “ring or bust” style commitment and are consequently playing catch-up after being hindered by the sort of travails that befall most contenders over the course of the season. 

If they do manage to get past the first round, they will almost certainly face one of the top two teams in the NBA, the San Antonio Spurs, in round two, and then the best team, the reigning champion Thunder, in the conference finals. 

But we are a long, long way away from those pipe dreams. First things first: A motto that has been ignored and bedeviling to these shortcut specialists throughout the 2025-26 campaign.



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