The Minnesota Timberwolves would love to don the guise of the plucky underdog as they head into the mountain air to take on the Denver Nuggets Saturday afternoon in the best-of-seven first round series of the 2026 NBA playoffs.
They have the underdog part right. The Nuggets won a dozen straight games to close out the regular season. They are led by Nikola Jokic, a three-time Most Valuable Player who sustained his prime this season by becoming the first player in NBA history to top the league in rebounds and assists at the same time. A 284-pound behemoth with a surgeon’s finesse and precision, Jokic carved up the Wolves to the tune of 35.8 points, 15 rebounds and 11.3 assists per game as Denver won three out of four in their regular season matchups.
The Wolves forfeited the right to be dubbed plucky by overestimating their commitment to a championship mentality, specifically by reneging on their promises to build teamwork and momentum game-by-game over the course of the season.
“I’ve said it all year. We know this team — who we can be and who we have been,” said head coach Chris Finch after practice on Tuesday, referencing the Wolves previous two years making the conference finals and its tendency to lock in and play the league’s best teams on equal terms this season.
“It’s about whether we can maintain that. We don’t ever really want to be a flip-a-switch team but we do have a switch to flip and we have to flip it now. And when we do that, everybody becomes the best version of themselves and brings out that continuity and connection that we need.”
So you do think there is a switch to flip?, asked Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic.
“I mean, we’ll see,” Finch said with a short, rueful laugh. “We’ll see.”
Six months ago, I wrote a “preseason primer,” identifying four points of emphasis that the Timberwolves organization — from the front office through to the coaches and players — said needed to be improved in order for the team to become championship contenders in the 2025-26 season.
In order, they were:
- More capable team defense when Rudy Gobert was off the court
- Using the “youth core” of Terrence Shannon Jr., Jaylen Clark and Rob Dillingham to add depth to the roster
- Bolstering the transition offense via better organization
- Sweating the details and sustaining the commitment required to seriously compete for a championship, with the defense of Anthony Edwards cited as a signal example
The Wolves failed on three of those four points over the course of the regular season. The gap between more points allowed per 100 possessions when Gobert was off the court went from 4.4 points in 2024-25 to 7.9 points this season in almost the exact same sample size. The youthful trio did the near-opposite of providing depth, damaging the bench production most of the time they were utilized. The transition offense was the outlier success; it is significantly improved and has become a key component of the Wolves identity. And the sustained commitment to championship-level teamwork has been degraded to the point where the Wolves hope, and need, to “flip a switch” to activate the high-level hoops everyone has watched wax and wane from quarter-to-quarter and game-to-game.
No one doubts that there is a switch. But why should anyone believe it will stay on consistently enough to beat the Denver Nuggets four times?
On the other hand, while it is appropriate to be a cynic about this team, why be a doomsayer before familiar rivals, who have each sent the other home via playoff defeat during the past three postseasons, settle the rubber match on the court?
The preseason itinerary for improvement can still be useful in concocting a recipe for redemption for this 2025-26 edition of the Wolves. But it will require the erasure of bad habits and, most likely, a level of flexibility and experimentation in the rotation that is both risky and unprecedented in past playoff trips under Finch.
Related: Injured and adrift, Timberwolves’ season expectations look more like pipe dreams
To state the obvious first, the Wolves can’t beat the Nuggets without their superstar, Anthony Edwards, dramatically enhancing both the height and breadth of his game. That means efficient scoring from every level — behind the three-point arc, at the rim, from the midrange and at the free throw line.
Fortunately, just as the Wolves haven’t been able to contain Jokic, the Nuggets lack the matchups to defensively flummox Ant. He averaged over 30 points per game the three times he suited up for Denver this season, with most of the efficiency occurring on drives to the rim, both in half-court sets and transition. He shot 63.9% (23-of-36) from two points range while drawing enough fouls to average 9 free throws per game (he made 21-of-27).
But he was just 8-for-31 (25.8%) from three-point territory, and while 17 rebounds (15 on the defensive glass), 15 assists, 7 steals and 4 blocks speaks to his activity, 11 turnovers in three games is deadly against a team that scored 121.2 points per 100 possessions this season — best in the NBA.
Just as Denver will throw a bevy of different looks at Ant, he needs to vary his attack and counter the defensive schemes with quick decisions. Different players should bring the ball up, and whether he has it or not, he should be moving; tilting coverages with the gravity he brings and more actively looking for open teammates when he has the rock. Finch has long maintained that Ant’s best games have him flirting with a triple-double and that will be especially true if it happens in this series.
Defensively, Ant has to get the hell outside his too-narrow comfort zone. When you are facing the smartest and most accurate passer on the planet, you need to hew to the game-plan’s rotations in a crisp, disciplined manner and not fall asleep in on-ball coverage or back-door cuts. And you need to close-out hard on three-point shooters. A career year from All-Star point guard Jamal Murray and the addition of Tim Hardaway, Jr. helped propel Denver to the NBA’s most accurate three-point shooting this season (39.6%), although with Jokic consistently finding the open shooters, anyone is a threat from deep.
Julius Randle likewise was efficient from two-point range (29-for-47, 61.7%), shrewd about drawing contact (23-for-27 at the line over four games), and woeful from distance (5-for-19, 26.3%). But his 24 assists versus 9 turnovers was a good ratio. One caveat: Ace defender and rim protector Aaron Gordon only played two of the four games.
Gordon and springy wing-forward Peyton Watson are x factors, because they are staunch and active defenders and also not 100 percent healthy, particularly Watson, who hasn’t played for two weeks, while Gordon has been on an informal minutes-restriction. Denver knocked off 2.5 points from their points allowed per 100 possessions after the All Star break (116.9 to 114.4) but were among the seven worst team in opponent’s field goal percentage at the rim throughout the season. Playing isolation basketball by driving into a crowd lets them off the hook; by contrast, ball movement, cuts and frequent transition opportunities that finish at the hoop exploit Jokic’s lumbering physique and will test the limits of Gordon’s and Watson’s health.
Not coincidentally, that is also what the Wolves offense looks like when it flips the switch.
Let’s talk about the failure of the non-Rudy minutes on defense and the damaged depth stemming the disappointing play of the youth trio. Late-season additions to the roster have shored up both weaknesses. How much? It is difficult to judge, because the silver lining of recent injuries to Ant and Jaden McDaniels, plus the appropriately resting of regulars once the Wolves were locked into the sixth seed, gave us a promising but incomplete picture of how thoroughly Ayo Dosunmu and Kyle “Slo Mo” Anderson can contribute. And we don’t know what the opportunity cost is for cutting back minutes on core rotation members if Finch is willing to find out.
For a large part of this season, Naz Reid was the only really dependable player coming off the Timberwolves bench. Then Finch shelved the Dillingham experiment and installed Bones Hyland as a backup at the point. Dillingham was dealt at the trading deadline as an item in a bucket of bit parts for Dosunmu, who immediately transformed the team’s prowess and proclivity to play in transition and thus made Bones even more valuable. So did Slo Mo, a Swiss army knife also adept as a smallball frontcourt defender alongside Randle and Naz, alleviating some of the porous rim protection in the non-Rudy minutes.
Suddenly the rotation is at least nine deep, with Naz, Ayo, Slo Mo and Bones supplementing the starting five. It could go further, as rumors of Mike Conley’s death due to old age have proven to be at least partially premature, and Shannon is suddenly making good on his sixth or seventh opportunity to become a meaningful asset.
Throughout his tenure, Finch has been most comfortable with a taut, eight-player rotation, in part because it provides the copious playing time that retains the loyalty and team-wide goodwill of his most important personnel. And it has been successful.
But the status quo of this regular season doesn’t deserve immunity. Weaknesses identified as priorities to repair in the preseason remain weaknesses, and possible new sources of strength — pushing the pace in transition — have shown dramatic improvement but still have further potential that could be tapped by utilizing bench personnel.
Finch recognizes this. In his pregame availability before the regular season finale last Sunday, I referenced his preference for a taut eight and how it might conflict with the greater potential and flexibility of an expanded rotation in the playoffs.
“The playoffs are about having your players buy into the mentality that we need to go wherever we need to go with the roster,” Finch replied. “It might happen to start the series; it might happen as the series goes along. And every series is different. What happens in this series might not carry forward and it will be completely different when the next series opens up—if you are fortunate enough to make it.”
He then referenced the Wolves first-round series with Memphis in 2022, when matchups caused Memphis to remove starting center Steven Adams after the first game and he never played again. Adams never complained, Finch emphasized, and made a positive impact under better circumstances in the second round. “That is the mentality you need to have,” he concluded.
Previously: Wolves push the pace, flex versatility and show readiness for the stretch run in win over Denver
To set the nail on his point of emphasis, I asked Finch if it was thus probable that he’d lean into more flexible rotations this season than in previous trips to the playoffs.
“Yeah, I would think so,” he said.
Not exactly a clarion call for change. It is hard for any coach to alter their habits and endanger a core principle, which for Finch, is keeping his best players happy. Consequently, I think Finch’s willingness to tinker, to adjust quickly to apparent disadvantages (or to press a sudden advantage), is one of the most fascinating aspects of this series.
Everything should be on the table.
Other teams have resorted to guarding Jokic with a smaller, quicker, but notoriously tenacious primary defender. The idea is to beset him with physical noise rather than outright size. When the Wolves had Karl-Anthony Towns, they used KAT’s size to guard Jokic and Gobert was able to float in coverage, bailing out mistakes and caulking seams, which is what he naturally does anyway. Julius Randle is smaller but much more rugged than KAT. He has proven to be a surprisingly capable low-post defender because of the constant pressure he can exert due to the extraordinary strength and maneuverability of his lower body, honed from constant jousts in the paint when he is on offense.
Like Ant, Randle is a defensive sieve when not properly motivated, but a laterally moving fortress in high-leverage situations that pique his competitive spirit. I’d use him on Jokic and gamble on Gobert being able to float while “guarding” Christian Braun, one of the few Nuggets who is inaccurate from long range. Or I’d go with a non-Rudy frontcourt during some of the Jokic minutes and have Slo Mo and Randle alternate their idiosyncrasies as a Jokic deterrent.
It’s not like recent strategies to stop Jokic have much credibility.
I’ve written at great length over numerous columns about how much the Wolves have benefitted by pushing the pace this season and I’d lean into that with my most suitable personnel — Ayo, Bones, Naz, Slo Mo. The bench guys. They don’t all have to play together, but Ayo, like Slo Mo, has defensive virtues that match up well with Denver — he is quick and diligent with his rotations, especially his closeouts, and sets a great example by balancing fidelity to the game plan with good instinctive spontaneity. Like Naz, he makes quick decisions, a secret ingredient for enabling teammates that doesn’t get enough credit.
How much will Finch let the game help determine the timing and frequency of his rotations? Probably much less than I would advocate — there is at least as much risk as reward in stirring things up, and I can bray without penalty if it doesn’t work out.
But the stakes merit some risk. The Wolves may not be totally at the “ring or bust” stage of their development, but a first-round exit with the size of their payroll and their escalating ticket prices is not an anodyne situation.
Denver is playing glorious basketball. Since the All-Star break, they have remained a top three offense while improving their defense. They share the ball — third in assist percentage and third in assist-to-turnover ratio. Their defensive rebounding percentage is tops in the NBA — good luck to opponents getting second chance points. They are first in effective field goal percent and first in true shooting percentage. They won 54 games this season despite a blizzard of injuries far more disruptive than what the Wolves endured.
Meanwhile, Minnesota won 48 games. Since the All-Star break they are 21st in offensive rating, 11th in defensive rating and have a slightly negative net rating — minus 0.1, compared to Denver’s plus 7.3. They do not move the ball well, landing 25th in assist percentage and 25th in assist-to-turnover ratio, 24th in turnover ratio, 28th in defensive rebounding (opportunities galore for opponent second-chance points). They are 17th in effective field goal percentage and 17th in true shooting percentage. Excessive fouling provided their opponents with the third-most free throw attempts per game after the All Star break.
Is an upset possible? Absolutely, with a motivated, disciplined and hopefully healthy Ant, Finch pushing all the right buttons to maximize greater depth, and the mother of all switches being flipped. And staying on.
Some of that will happen and I anticipate a very enjoyable series. But I think it ends with Denver winning in six.
