WASHINGTON – Rep. Angie Craig may be a little down, but she’s certainly not out.
The congresswoman, who is running for retiring Sen. Tina Smith’s seat, bowed out of the state’s Democratic convention Wednesday as it was painfully clear that thousands of delegates who will meet in Rochester on Saturday will show their preference for Democratic rival Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan.
Instead, Craig has made the calculus that aggressively shifting her efforts to a different, much larger pool of Democratic voters who may be more open to her pragmatic type of politics – those who will cast ballots in August’s primary – will reinvigorate her campaign.
“I’m a proud DFLer. Every letter has meaning to me,” Craig said in announcing she would skip the convention. “But the DFL endorsement process just doesn’t reflect the full scope of the party that we are. And the purple state that we have become.”
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Craig said most Minnesotans “don’t have the luxury” of time or money to attend a “sub-caucus” and Democrats who don’t attend Saturday’s convention are the voters who matter.
Besides winning the support of a majority of convention delegates, Flanagan has also racked up endorsements from a growing list of fellow progressives – including Smith herself and a slate of other key Democratic senators – and Craig’s campaign looked to be stumbling.
And without the DFL Party endorsement, which will now default to Flanagan, Craig will not have access to state party money and other help, including access to the DFL’s voter rolls.
No matter. Jacob Rubashkin of Inside Elections is among the analysts who are not counting Craig out.
“She has formidable fundraising chops and significant financial resources, and Election Day isn’t until August so she’s got time to deploy them,” Rubashkin said.
Craig has steadily outraised Flanagan when it comes to political money, reporting $4.8 million in cash on hand as of March 31, much more than the $1.1 million Flanagan had in the bank.
“The endorsement isn’t the be-all, end-all of the process, as Gov. (Tim) Walz knows well, and was always going to be an uphill battle for Craig,” Rubashkin said.
Walz, with running mate Flanagan, lost the party’s endorsement but advanced to win a primary and the governor’s office.
Craig was wounded in her run for the U.S. Senate by some of the votes she took to burnish her bipartisan credentials as she fought for reelection to represent the 2nd Congressional District, a seat that had been held by Republicans for nearly 20 years before Craig won it in 2018.
Flanagan successfully seized on one of those, a vote for the Laken Riley Act, a GOP bill that allows undocumented immigrants arrested for certain nonviolent crimes to be detained and deported. That vote, taken in January of 2025, a little more than a month before Smith announced her retirement, changed Craig’s political trajectory and rankled many Minnesota Democrats who were subjected in the wake of Operation Metro Surge.
Craig has since said she regretted that vote and has championed immigrant rights. But the political damage was done.
“Craig has made her political career on winning tough general election fights in a swing district. She’s actually never had to run in a Democratic primary before,” said Rubashkin. “So, she’s in unfamiliar waters and the positions she took on things like the Laken Riley Act, which might have helped her in a tough MN-02 re-election campaign are hindering her now.”
Rubashkin also said that another “headwind” Craig is facing is the strong national environment for Democrats and the strength of Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s gubernatorial candidacy.
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Craig must promote her “electability” against a GOP opponent – former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya and several other Republicans are vying for Smith’s seat — and argue that keeping that seat in the Democratic column is not guaranteed, Rubashkin said.
“If Democrats aren’t as focused on electability because they see the general election as a safer bet, Flanagan might begin to look more attractive,” he said.
Craig has argued that she is “battle tested” and adept at appealing to increasingly Democratic-leaning suburban voters as well as picking up some support in the Republican-leaning rural areas of her district.
The 2nd Congressional District includes the south Twin Cities metro area and runs south nearly to Mankato, encompassing all of Scott, Dakota and Le Sueur counties as well as parts of Rice and Washington counties.
Dan Hofrenning, a political science professor at St. Olaf College, said Craig’s ability to keep the seat “blue” and even make it safer for other Democratic candidates to run in is a “remarkable achievement.”
“Of all of Minnesota’s eight congressional districts, hers is the most geographically diverse,” he said.
Flanagan, however, has less experience on the campaign trail. She ran unopposed in a special election for a state House seat and ran for lieutenant governor as Walz’s partner.
“Flanagan still has to establish herself as a campaigner,” Hofrenning said, while Craig has won four congressional elections on her own in a district President Donald Trump has carried.
“Experience does matter at this moment in time,” Craig said.
Meanwhile, Flanagan’s campaign says that by skipping the convention, Craig has insulted the DFL base and that this year’s delegates are more reflective of the broader Democratic primary electorate than at any point in recent history, with 57% of delegates attending the DFL State Convention involved in the process for the first time.
“I’m disappointed Rep. Craig chose to leave the process before delegates had the opportunity to cast their votes and have their voices heard,” Flanagan said in a statement.
She was harsher in a post on X.
“If you can’t face your own party, you’re not ready to face a Republican,” Flanagan said.
Hofrenning said it’s likely progressives will be overrepresented when it comes to the balloting in August’s primary, but the pool of voters will be larger and more diverse. He also said former Gov. Mark Dayton skipped the DFL State Convention and still won his race.
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Rubashkin said it may still be too early to determine whether Craig made the right move and whether the lawmaker can best Flanagan in the primary, especially since the political advertising wars have not yet begun.
“Paid media is just beginning,” he said. “There’s a dark money group that’s started to spend a little money on Angie Craig but otherwise the airwaves have been relatively quiet. Let’s see what happens when Craig begins to dip into her 4-1 cash-on-hand advantage.”
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